Babak Homayunpur; Massoud Goodarzi; Qolamreza Zehtabian; Baharak Motamedvaziri; Hassan Ahmadi
Abstract
Nowadays, global climate change has been observed which had an impact on both surface and groundwater resources management. The main objective of this research is change detection of groundwater fluctuation caused by climate change in Borkhar Plain, Isfahan Province. In this way, both Mann-Kendal and ...
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Nowadays, global climate change has been observed which had an impact on both surface and groundwater resources management. The main objective of this research is change detection of groundwater fluctuation caused by climate change in Borkhar Plain, Isfahan Province. In this way, both Mann-Kendal and Sen’s slope non-parametric analysis were used using 19 piezometric wells data for the period of 1991-2019. Pearson correlation matrix along with correlation between climatic elements including temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration (Thornwhite) with water table levels were determined. Based on this, a multivariate regression model was developed to model the annual time series at a confidence level of 0.95. Climatic factors of 2080-2099 period were simulated using the output of HadCM3 model through Lars-WG downscaling model for Maymeh Station under two scenarios A2 and A1B and based on the developed regression model, the water level of Borkhar Plain was simulated. The results showed that in the base period, the water table in the study area has been decreased with an annual slope of 47 cm per year. Correlation analysis showed that the three climatic elements of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration in a linear composition modeled 0.75 of the annual groundwater changes in the plain. The results of the exponential microscale model implemented on HadCM3 data showed that in the period 2080-2099 under both scenarios, the groundwater level of the region will decrease between 15 to 17 meters compared to the base period.
Abbasali Mohammadian; Ali Talebi; - -; - -
Abstract
Weather generator models are used to predict climate parameters variations caused by climate change phenomenon. It can be used as a downscaling method for hydrological modeling, risk assessments in agriculture etc. Herein this research, HadCm3 model were used. Three different scenarios were considered. ...
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Weather generator models are used to predict climate parameters variations caused by climate change phenomenon. It can be used as a downscaling method for hydrological modeling, risk assessments in agriculture etc. Herein this research, HadCm3 model were used. Three different scenarios were considered. Downscaling were done using LARS-WG model. LARS-WG is a statistical downscaling model. Different climatic parameters such as minimum and maximum monthly temperature, minimum and maximum precipitation were predicted based on A1B, B1 and A2 scenarios. This research was done for Balqur Watershed in Kardeh Dam in Mashhad. Base line period is 1961-2010. Prediction was done for 2046-2065. Results showed that changes in minimum temperature would be higher than maximum in 2046-2065. Generally precipitation would be decreased except for a light increase in A2 scenario. But even if it is considered, it would not be as important as an increase in temperature would increase evaporation too. So, with regard to this fact and be aware of directly and indirectly negative effects of climate change on the environment and other sectors, strategic long-term plans to manage the new situation seems inevitable and necessary.
Mosayeb Heshmati; Yayah Parvizi; Mohamad Gheitury; Mojtaba Sanee; Samad Shadfar; Masud Goodarzi
Abstract
Abstract: land degradation, air pollution, food deficient, poverty as well as inequality are the main challenges worldwide. However, overcome these challenges are impossible without local inhabitants’ participation. The objective of this research was to evaluate the watershed management measures ...
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Abstract: land degradation, air pollution, food deficient, poverty as well as inequality are the main challenges worldwide. However, overcome these challenges are impossible without local inhabitants’ participation. The objective of this research was to evaluate the watershed management measures which measured through joint project by Forests, Rangelands and Watershed Organization (FRWM) and Middle East and North Africa Regions Program for Integrated Development (MENARID) in Razin watershed, Kermanshah, Iran during 2013-16. Local inhabitants were interviewed using questionnaire. The results explored that constructed measures comprise the pit- seeding, rain-fed orchard, stony dam, gabion and dyke. However, most of respondents did not agree with biological measures (pit- seeding, rain-fed orchard) due to limitation for their animal grazing, persuading land-use change and enhancing conflicts among them, while rare inhabitants were willing to rain-fed orchard due to their expects on rangeland ownership and loan opportunity. Approximately 85% of local people confirmed that they did not consult or collaborated during watershed management measures, although they had environmental friend ideas. They believed that mechanical measures are impossible solutions in terms of soil conservation, flood control, runoff harvesting and supplemental irrigation. Overall, local communities worried about climate change and its sever negative impacts on agricultural activities and livelihood, thus watershed management and governance should be taken urgent steps overcome or adapting hits of droughts due to their literacy and experience during recent years. It is concluded that local inhabitant's ideas and their participations should be considered as the necessary step to obtain the effective results and sustaining watershed management measures.
Behnoush Farrokhzadeh; Sepideh Choobeh; Hamid Nouri; Massoud Goodarzi
Abstract
In addition to climate change, the land use changes as an ancillary factor affects flooding. Thus evaluation of impacts of climate change and land use change (together) on flood situation in the coming decades will open a new way to deal with this phenomenon. In this research, to study the effects of ...
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In addition to climate change, the land use changes as an ancillary factor affects flooding. Thus evaluation of impacts of climate change and land use change (together) on flood situation in the coming decades will open a new way to deal with this phenomenon. In this research, to study the effects of climate change on 2020s in Balighloo Chai Watershed, HadCM3 under A2 and B1 senarios was downscaled with LARS-WG. Results showed an increase between 8.78 to 12.86 percent in average of annual rainfall in 2020s. Average annual temperture increases 0.66 °C in 2020s. After examining past hanges in land use, two scenarios were developed to predict the impact of land use changes on the runoff in the coming decades: the first scenario assumes a constant in current land use and the second scenario assumes continuation of changes rate during past decades in the future. Results showed a decrease between nine percent in rangelands and five percent increase in agricultural lands area respectively in 2020s. In order to simulate the hydrologic system in the coming decades, HEC-HMS model was calibrated and validated using data of past period, and was used with new curve number, impersive area and hytograph estimated for the future decades. Then the coming decades predicted hydrographs were compared to the past ones. Results showed an increase in peak flow and flood volume in April while they will decrease in March, May and June. If land use change occures with climate change, this increase will be intensified.
Samaneh Poormohammadi; Mohammad Taghi Dastorani; Hadi Jafari; Alireza Massah Bavani; Massoud Goodarzi; Fatemeh Baqeri; Mohammad Hassan Rahimian
Abstract
Assessing drought effects on water resources are important on optimizing water management activities in agriculture and natural resources sectors. The groundwater model can be used as a valuable tool in the management of groundwater resources. Therefore, investigation of ground water balance analysis ...
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Assessing drought effects on water resources are important on optimizing water management activities in agriculture and natural resources sectors. The groundwater model can be used as a valuable tool in the management of groundwater resources. Therefore, investigation of ground water balance analysis affected by meteorological drought using mathematical models is applicable and important objectives in sustainable development of water resources and the environment. Tuyserkan is one of the most important plains in Hamadan province as the main source of water supply for the water wells usage in orchards and farms. The goal of this research is assessing the effects of metrological drought index on water balance changes using mathematical modeling by GMS software. For this purpose, after calculation of Standardized Precipitation Index and determination of wet and dry spells in the study area, and selection of three sample years as normal (1387), wet (1388) and dry (1389), the groundwater balance was analyzed in this three sample years. The normal year was used for calibration of the model and wet and dry years for validation of the GMS. The results showed that the GMS model can simulate groundwater level in normal, wet and dry year (error statistics are respectively 0.73, 0.85 and 0.93). Comparison of meteorological and hydrological drought indices showed that meteorological drought cannot affect the groundwater level alone and excess use of exploitation wells has great influence on the groundwater table changes. Interestingly, the results showed that drought strongly influences water balance changes.
Boroumand Salahi; Massoud Goudarzi; Seyed Asaad Hosseini
Abstract
Predicting the temperature and precipitation changes is necessary for assessing the change in the future and to mitigate the harmful impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture, environmental, economic and social issues. Accordingly atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have ...
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Predicting the temperature and precipitation changes is necessary for assessing the change in the future and to mitigate the harmful impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture, environmental, economic and social issues. Accordingly atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been developed for simulation of climatic parameters. In this research, output data of HadCM3 general circulation model (with three climate change scenarios A1B, A2 and B1) were downscaled using LARS-WG Statistical Model in selected stations of the Urmia Lake Basin and Results has been evaluated and analyzed from three selected synoptic stations, including Saghez, Tabriz and Urmia stations in the base period (1961-1990) and the 2050 (2046-2065) for three variables minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation. In LARS-WG model analysis, evaluation of the amount of MSE, RMSE, MAE indexes were done and correlation coefficients were determined. The conclusion can be presented herein that: the model was fit for the region. The overall results for 20 years of 2050s, indicate a decrease of 12.1 percent in precipitation and also 1.3 Celsius degrees would be increased in temperature compared to the base period. In the study area, the highest maximum temperature increase would be in Tabriz synoptic stations and the highest minimum temperature and highest decries precipitation would occur in Urmia station. The results of this study would help enormous the policymakers and planners for water resources in the future.
Masoumeh Bahri; Mohammadtaghi Dastorani; Masoud Goodarzi
Abstract
Studies of climate change and its impacts on the frequency and intensity of future droughts can help programming for the management of water resource and adaptation of the destructive effects of this phenomenon. The aim of this research is trying to assess the climate change in 2011-2030 period and its ...
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Studies of climate change and its impacts on the frequency and intensity of future droughts can help programming for the management of water resource and adaptation of the destructive effects of this phenomenon. The aim of this research is trying to assess the climate change in 2011-2030 period and its impact on drought in Eskandari Basin. To achieve this purpose, after validating Lars-WG to generate weather parameters, HadCM3 output downscaled under A2 and B1 scenarios. Next, minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation was predicted. Also, SPI index was calculated. Underlying these scenarios minimum temperature growth dramatically in March, June, July and September 0.3 to 1.6 °C. Additionally, highest and lowest increment in maximum temperature will occur about 0.02 and 1.6 in May and April, respectively. However, the results indicated an increase of 7.2 to 10.9 percent in the average of annual precipitation, but due to the fact that there is no any increase in the number of wet days, extreme rainfall intensity will soar remarkably. Substantial reduction in precipitation belongs to May and April. Regarding this issue, this shortage will affect with several months lag and the most severe agricultural drought will occur in August and hydrological drought will fall out in December based on six and 12 months SPI, respectively. Annual analysis showed that 75 percent of the years are in normal condition. Therefore, in Eskandari Basin, increasing drought frequency will not be expected in 2020s. But, precipitation oriented towards warm seasons.
Mohammad Nekouiemehr; Said Naim Emami; Ravanbakhsh Raisian; Majid Soufi; Msoud Goodarzi
Abstract
Applied research about preventing gully initiation and expansion, needs basic knowledge about the types and morphometric characteristics of gullies. The purpose of current research is the classification of gullied regions based on morpho-climatic characteristics in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiary province. ...
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Applied research about preventing gully initiation and expansion, needs basic knowledge about the types and morphometric characteristics of gullies. The purpose of current research is the classification of gullied regions based on morpho-climatic characteristics in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiary province. In this research, two gullied regions covering an area about 500 ha were selected in each climate zone and three representative gullies were chosen in each region. The morphometric characteristics were measured in each studied area. Classification of gullied regions was done using cluster analysis based on quantitative characteristics. The results indicate that gullied regions in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiary province can be divided to three groups base on morpho-climatic characteristics. Maximum similarity level was 94.12 percent. A comparison of variance analysis and mean value of variables in groups shows that, annual rainfall, elevation above sea level, gully length, gullied region area and top width of gullies were the most important variables in separating of the groups. Generally, we can emphasize that among all morphometric characteristics; only gully length and top width have the main role in morpho-climatic classification.
Ramin Bidel; Abdoralsoul Telvari; Masoud Goodarzi
Volume 1, Issue 3 , October 2009, , Pages 189-200
Abstract
Rainfall is one of the main variables to be studied in climatologic studies. Also it is an important variable because of its distribution status both temporally and spatially. In other word, it varies with synoptic patterns. Therefore, river structure designing based on non-native design storm ...
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Rainfall is one of the main variables to be studied in climatologic studies. Also it is an important variable because of its distribution status both temporally and spatially. In other word, it varies with synoptic patterns. Therefore, river structure designing based on non-native design storm suffer from high risk. For more safety, we need to recognize precipitation condition of study area and its temporal patterns. In this study, rainstorms of seven stations in Kermanshah province are studied and after derivation of 2989 storm events, temporal distribution patterns of rainfall by Pilgrim (graphical mean) and Huff (probability) methods were calculated. The examination of rainstorms in all of the stations specified that rainstorms of 1 hour group contain 30 percent and 1 to 6 hour groups more than 80 percent of whole rainstorms as well. Furthermore, the inspection of resulted patterns and distribution quantity in each time quarter showed that 48.21 percent and 7.14 percent of rainstorms in all of the stations and whole groups has reposed in second and fourth quartile respectively. This study shows that 80.35 percent of rainstorms belong to second and third quartile. In regional patterns, 1 to 24 hour groups, second and third quartile contain 75 percent and 25 percent of total rainstorms respectively. According to Huff or probability distribution method, most of the station in short time rainstorms (1 to 6 hour) are second quartile and remaining groups are third quartile. Regional types in this method have similar condition in most groups and are confirmed by median types. Results of comparing these patterns show no correspondence with S.C.S patterns, but IA pattern corresponds with Kernd station. Probability and median have good correlation in the second quartile relatively.
